Saint Nicked 3

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Across markets in Latin America, Europe and Asia, Yashin says the average stakes for swipe games display a pattern closer to sports betting than crash gaming. In one market, the average Swipe Games bet was 20 times higher than the average crash-game bet with the same operator.

Retention has provided another encouraging signal. Depending on the market, Yashin says day-one, day-seven and day-30 retention can range from around the crash-game benchmark to between five and 10 times higher. The number of rounds played during a session can also be significantly greater.

The explanation, he believes, comes back to the behaviour that inspired Swipe Games in the first place. Crash players may experience a different outcome each time, but visually they repeatedly encounter much the same thing. Social media has conditioned its users to expect something new with every swipe.

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Evolution then commissioned Spectrum Gaming Group to produce a report on its actions and the validity of the Black Cube report. Produced in 2022, the report has long been subject to confidentiality despite Evolution claiming the report exonerated the company.

Playtech on Wednesday published a statement highlighting what it claimed were compliance failures at Evolution, written into the Spectrum report.

Within the report, Spectrum alleged “concerns around the availability of Evolution’s games in certain prohibited markets, the regulatory implications of its practices, and the lack of proactive monitoring of its customers”.

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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.