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The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.
The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.
Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.
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While Station has remained steadfast in its opposition to Culinary, the union has made gains elsewhere in recent years. The entire Las Vegas Strip is now unionised, and Culinary used city-wide strikes as leverage in late 2023 and early 2024 to gain new multi-year labour agreements with the city’s major operators, including Wynn, Caesars and MGM.
Other than Station, Las Vegas Sands had been the other largest non-union holdout in Las Vegas for many years. But when the Venetian-Palazzo was sold to Apollo Global Management in 2021, the firm had no issues with Culinary and ratified the property’s first-ever deal with the union in 2024.
The animosity between the sides has become political over the years. Station is owned and operated by the Fertitta family, who have been prominent Republican donors for many years. Culinary is a largely Democratic organisation that typically supports and endorses left-leaning candidates.
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The company reported approximately £3.6 billion of net debt at the end of June, with reported leverage of 3.1x underlying EBITDA. Online underlying EBITDA fell 5% in the first half despite 7% growth in online net gaming revenue. The tax impact has been substantial.
The UK government increased Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) from 21% to 40% from 1 April. Then from April 2027, a new 25% General Betting Duty rate for remote betting will apply, although remote bets on UK horse racing are excluded from the new rate.
Entain said the higher RGD had a £56 million negative impact on first-half EBITDA. In Britain, operators are dealing with government policy and higher taxes. In America, the main threat is competition. The problems are different, but they hit the same group of stocks.
